Venezuela’s political crisis reaches Washington and Madrid

As the flow of people escaping Venezuela’s economic collapse continues, its impact is increasingly being felt on other countries’ political scenes. Nowhere has this been clearer in recent months than in Spain, which, as well as the thousands of Venezuelans snapping up real estate and supporting the services industries, has seen a rising number of political exiles. And, given the current febrile and hyper-polarised state of Spanish politics, their arrival has become a wedge issue to score political points.

This hit boiling point following the arrival of Venezuelan presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, an event that somehow managed to split Spain’s two main political parties. After Venezuela’s opposition leader, María Corina Machado, was barred from running against president Nicolas Maduro in the July 28th presidential election, Gonzalez, a low-profile, 75-year-old, former diplomat was put forward as the opposition’s candidate.

Exit polls suggested that he had won a resounding victory on July 28^th. However, Venezuela’s election authority ruled otherwise, claiming that the president had won 51% to Gonzalez’s 44% and days later an arrest warrant was issued for Gonzalez. He was forced to hide first in the Dutch embassy in Caracas before moving to Spain’s embassy and requesting asylum.

Gonzalez is not the first Venezuelan politician to seek refuge in Spain. It also happened with former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma (2017), opposition leader Leopoldo López (2020), ex-president of the national assembly Julio Borges (2021) and former attorney general Luisa Ortega (2021). Nearly eight million Venezuelans— roughly one-third of the population — have now fled the country.

Playing politics

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez characterized the granting of asylum as a “gesture of humanity”. However, the opposition centre-right Partido Popular (PP), which has traditionally backed Venezuela’s opposition and condemned Maduro, rejected this stance.

Sensing an opportunity to score political points, the PP described Gonzalez’s exit from Venezuela as a gift to the Maduro regime, which undermines the opposition’s efforts to put pressure on Maduro to accept that he lost. Esteban González Pons, a senior PP figure, described it as removing a “problem” for the dictatorship and even going as far as accusing the Spanish government of being implicated in “the coup” in Venezuela.

the Maduro regime has been very successful at using divisions and international squabbles to ride out a crisis

The PP then led a resolution calling for the recognition of González as the elected president of Venezuela, which passed with 177 votes in favour from the PP and its coalition partners, demanding that the Sánchez administration push for European institutions and international bodies to recognise him as the legitimate president (Sanchez insisted he prefers to work through the EU to formulate a joint policy position).

Although this all largely meaningless as only the Spanish government has the power to officially recognise foreign leaders, it highlights a broader issue: the Maduro regime has been very successful at using divisions and international squabbles to ride out a crisis. In fact, he’s turned this into a kind of art form. In response to developments in Spain, Chavista stalwart and interior minister Diosdado Cabello threated to break off diplomatic relations and—of course—pointed to Spain’s colonial history.  

International reactions

US policy on Venezuela is starting to converge and become a rare bi-partisan issue. But that won’t stop the candidates in the US presidential election from trying to turn it into a wedge issue. It also ignores the shifts in policy between Trump and Biden, with the latter’s hope that sanctions relief would act as a carrot for democratic transition unravelling spectacularly. The EU has questioned the legitimacy of the election but stopped short of recognising Gonzalez as president. Prior to that Hungary temporarily vetoed a joint statement on the issue. The US has, at least, recognised Gonzalez as president.

Meanwhile, Maduro can increasingly count on support from a coalition of anti-American states led by China and Russia. Indeed, while most European and Latin American nations called out the election, Russia, China, Iran and Cuba congratulated Maduro on his victory.

Others have learned the lesson. After a period of pressure from the US and the international community, Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega remains in place. Oppression of domestic opposition is entrenched, with opposition candidates facing arrest and intimidation.

As Spain’s politicians have demonstrated, posturing domestically is easy and with political polarisation still high globally this will become more frequent. However, affecting meaningful change in Venezuela requires long-term both decision-making and sustained pressure. Until this happens, the flow of Venezuelans to Madrid and other cities, be it politicians, the super-rich or Uber drivers, will continue. 

Author: William Lee is a Director at business intelligence consultancy, SecureValue.